Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
